Invest Like a 90s Work Out

Leveraged ETFs, my friend, are like roller coasters for your portfolio—only the highs are higher, and the lows might give you a wedgie. If you’ve got the risk tolerance of a daredevil and a time horizon that stretches longer than an ‘80s rock ballad, then these bad boys might just be your cup of adrenaline-infused tea. But, fair warning, buckle up and hold on tight because we’re about to dive into the wild world of leveraged ETFs, where rewards and risks collide like two clumsy synchronized swimmers.

Now, picture this: You’re sitting at your trading desk, your cape of bravado billowing behind you. You want more than just average returns; you want to make those profits scream “Whee!” as they fly sky-high. Leveraged ETFs can make that happen. With their fancy financial magic tricks and leverage powers, they aim to deliver double or even triple the daily performance of their underlying index. That means if the market goes your way, your returns will be dancing like nobody’s watching.

For the adventurers among us, leveraged ETFs can be the Holy Grail of portfolio performance. They’re like turbo boosters strapped to your investments, propelling them towards the moon. So, if you believe that certain sectors or indexes are destined for greatness, these funds can be your secret weapon to harness those gains and pump up your portfolio like a ’90s workout video.

But, hey, remember the rule of thumb: the greater the rewards, the higher the risks. And leveraged ETFs are no exception. They’re like that one friend who always takes things a bit too far—sure, they might bring excitement to the party, but they can also make your stomach churn like a tilt-a-whirl gone rogue.

One risk you gotta watch out for is amplified losses. Just as leveraged ETFs can multiply your gains, they can do the same for your losses. A prolonged downturn in the market could eat away at your investment like a pack of seagulls at a beachside picnic. So, it’s important to keep an eye on these funds like you’re guarding the last slice of pizza at a party—you don’t want to lose it!

Oh, and let’s not forget about tracking errors. These sneaky buggers can throw a wrench in your plans. Sometimes leveraged ETFs don’t quite track the intended multiple of the underlying index, resulting in surprises that are about as welcome as a mosquito at a summer barbecue. It’s like trying to follow a GPS that keeps taking you to the wrong destinations—frustrating, right?

Lastly, brace yourself for the volatility roller coaster. Leveraged ETFs are known for their wild price swings, making your heart race faster than a caffeine-infused cheetah. If you’re not prepared for these ups and downs, you might find yourself on a wild ride of emotions, shouting, “I regret everything!” faster than you can say “sell, sell, sell!”

So, my fearless friend, if you’re considering leveraged ETFs, remember to approach them with caution. Understand their mechanics, actively manage your positions, and keep an eye on your stomach as you navigate the twists and turns. And if you’re feeling overwhelmed, don’t hesitate to seek guidance from a financial advisor—they’re like the seatbelt to your investment roller coaster, keeping you secure and helping you enjoy the ride.

But hey, in the end, investing should be a mix of excitement and prudence, like trying to eat a hot dog without getting ketchup on your white shirt. So, embrace the risks, enjoy the potential rewards, and remember, even in the world of leveraged ETFs, a little laughter and a good sense of humor can go a long way.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

This post was written with the assistance of ChatGPT.

Next Move Bitcoin & ETH

Transcript

Sadly, I wanted to try and make a video today, but my voice is gone. So I paid this sexy voice over person to do it for me. Now Let’s get right in to IT!  I am watching the price of Bitcoin today as it is currently sitting very close to its 50 day moving average.  ETH is also sitting at its 50 day moving average.

 It is impossible to know whether or not they will bounce off or break below these averages. There are numerous examples of both occurring in the start, middle, and end of bull runs. What will happen is impossible to know. Just like its impossible to know the mind of a cat.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

Rocketpool vs. Uniswap

Today I checked to see whether it was better to use Rocketpool or Uniswap to get rETH. I had to get way down in the decimals to see that Uniswap seemed slightly better. I got about 0.22% more rETH per ETH sent to Uniswap vs Rocketpool. This is a pretty minor difference, but certainly worth taking advantage of in the future.

The best way to reduce costs when converting from ETH to rETH seems to be waiting for network fees to be low. I did the transactions when the gas market was at about 32 gwei (cost of transactions). As can be seen in the ultrasound.money chart below. That was close to the low of the last 1 day and nearly 1/4 of what it would have been to do yesterday at a different time. Another key to consider is trying to minimize taxes. Perhaps the most effective thing to do is try and convert the ETH I have with the highest cost basis to reduce realized capital gains in the conversion. The other item to consider is reducing transactions by doing larger batches when possible.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

Ethereum Staking

Staking crypto is something I haven’t really dabbled in much before now. However, I have some ETH (Ethereum) that I plan to hold for a long period of time. Admittedly, I don’t know where ETH will go in terms of dollars. However, I like that ETH is a very green crypto since it has reduced its carbon emissions by 99.5%. I don’t know where crypto will go. I think a big part of how well it does will depend on government regulations, etc. However, even if things stayed as they are, I believe the long-term inflation rate for the USD may be around 2%. That seems reasonable since the Fed keeps stating that as their goal. Additionally, ETH will have an estimated burn rate (deflation) of 1.8% per year. Plus, if I allocate my ETH to a staking pool, such as the ones listed here, I may be able to earn about 3% (as of now) in additional ETH control.

Obviously, if ETH does terribly in the future due to some problem with quantum computing or being replaced by some other crypto, these yields won’t help much. However, I think the odds are not too bad for ETH to have moderate to large success over the next 10 years.

As far as purchasing the ETH, I already have it. I don’t have enough or the expertise to run my own node/validator at this time. So, I have been looking at Lido and Rocketpool. From my analysis, it seems Rocketpool is a better choice, better for the ETH community, and has a tax structure that will prevent me from having to realize yield income each year for taxes. Essentially, I can exchange my ETH for rETH, which has a dynamic conversion factor to ETH. At this time, the ETH I plan to use is not in a large unrealized profit position. Therefore, I won’t have to realize a large amount of taxable income to convert to rETH. Then, when I eventually have funds I want to spend, I can set the rETH for ETH under long-term capital gains rates.

I love that with BTC, ETH, and rETH it is possible to take full custody of them and not have exposure to an exchange like FTX or Coinbase. I have been in crypto since about 2017. I have seen massive runs up and down. I have done pretty well overall, but I think it may be time to carve out a section of my portfolio that is primarily a buy and hold venture.

I will likely try and see if I can get lower fees to convert to rETH either by using Uniswap or going directly to rocketpool. I will also be checking to see if I can get lower fees by waiting for a weekend or low demand time period. So I likely won’t make any swaps yet. I am still in the research phase, but I will likely start to get a crypto position that I intend to keep in crypto whether that is BTC, ETH, stablecoins etc. I like the idea of having a part of my net worth in an permissionless access vehicle that also isn’t stored in my home.

RocketPool (estimated Prices now)Uniswap (estimated prices now)
ETH11
rETH0.936840.93646
Transaction Cost0.02360 ETH0.00813017 ETH
Transaction Cost a few hours later (after original post)0.01640 ETH0.00433 ETH

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

Basics to Avoid Disaster

If you want to avoid losing your money in a crash like the one Ark 1 experienced in the image below you should consider the following steps.

1. Check for Real Trades

Some strategies on collective2 are built purely on hypothetical data. Others are built on actual trade data compiled from the trade leader’s account and/or subscribers. It may seem like simulated data is enough. In some cases it is. However, there are some significant difference. If you don’t know how to tell if simulated data is reliable, then I would disregard all trades that don’t have AutoTrade history as demonstrated in the images below.

2. Check For Too Much Leverage

It has become very easy to check for leverage use on collective2. I am very happy about that. Per the screenshot below you want to be checking that there are not massive spikes in leverage use and that the overall leverage use isn’t excessive.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

Ark

How can you know with a high level of certainty that a C2 strategy will explode. Since C2 is semi-anonymous it is hard to know exactly when a bad trader has just recreated a strategy. Well the first think you need to know is that previous performance doesn’t mean much. For example back in March 2022 I came across this strategy that had fantastic returns, but I warned it would likely crash. It took about 8 months for my prediction to come true. When Ark 1 apparently took a nose dive in the fall of 2022 you could have avoided that by following a few simple rules that I hold to when investing. If you want to know more about those rules check out my next post.

Ark 1 was one of many strategies this user had that had a big drop like this.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

Truthis (Strategy of the Week)

Truthis is the strategy of the week for collective2.com. This strategy is likely not one I would personally be willing to copy with my own money.

As I have previously said, when strategies have huge spikes in leverage I typically don’t think they make good long-term strategies. This is because by taking such large amounts of risk it can easily cause a 100% or near 100% drop in the account value. I expect that this strategy will likely experience a very large drop causing most to abandon it or to reduce the leverage use and use the early gains as good marketing. At this time the strategy is currently a part of the C2 start system which essentially means it hasn’t exceeded certain drawdown amounts. I find it hard to believe this could last with this level of leverage.

All that said I will be watching to see how the user fairs in making Truthis succeed. Who knows? Anything could happen, but the odds are not good in my opinion.

Limited’s OnGoing Performance Chart

The chart below will provide live updates of the strategy going forward.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

Limited (Strategy of the Week)

Limited is the strategy of the week for collective2.com. This strategy is likely not one I would personally be willing to copy with my own money. Per the screenshot below, the leverage curve shows huge spikes in leverage use, reaching as high as 22.10.

When strategies have huge spikes in leverage I typically don’t think they make good long-term strategies. This is because by taking such large amounts of risk it can easily cause a 100% or near 100% drop in the account value. By using 22.10 times leverage a sudden move of just 3% (Not uncommon in the investing world) could cause a drop of 66% in the account value. You could reduce some of that risk by using stop losses, but there is no free lunch. Say you set a stop of 5% of the account value. Using this much leverage means you will hit that 5% stop more often causing a series of 1,000 cuts rathe than one giant gash. Either way, more leverage means more risk. I am not opposed to leverage use, but to frequently use such high levels is a warning flag to me.

I expect that this strategy will likely experience a very large drop causing most to abandon it or to reduce the leverage use and use the early gains as good marketing. At this time the strategy is currently a part of the C2 start system which essentially means it hasn’t exceeded certain drawdown amounts. I find it hard to believe this could last with this level of leverage.

All that said I will be watching to see how the user fairs in making Limited succeed. Who knows? Anything could happen, but the odds are not good in my opinion.

Limited’s OnGoing Performance Chart

The chart below will provide live updates of the strategy going forward.

Other Strategies by Creator

After writing this post I then realized that one of the creators previous strategies followed a very similar pattern with leverage use and we can already see how well it worked out. I hate that they used the word “Patience” like some of my strategy names.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

S&P 500 with Dividends Reinvested

When in doubt, zoom out. This compiles the data from SPX and SP500 dividend yield from two different sources to show the growth of a simple buy, hold, reinvest strategy.

SPX Data was from Tradingview. SP500 Dividend Yield was from Tradingview/Quandl

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.

Better Do Now (C2 Strat of Week)

Just a few minutes ago I got an email about Collective2.com and its strategy of the week, Better Do Now which is run by user MichaelRenton. The strategy is currently followed by roughly 111 people (some paying subscribers, some not). There is also a total of $561,000 of real money following the strategy.

Key Stats

  • Short history: This strategy has only been around for about 5 months. This is very short. It is relatively common for various investment methods to work really well over 5 month periods while still being overly risky approaches for the long-term.
  • High Return/Drawdown Ratio: It is great to have a high ratio of return vs max drawdown. However, I think as investors we must be realistic as to what is possible. A ratio of 13 is far above any C2 strategy that has lasted for 3 years or longer. This tells me this likely won’t last. It could. I just don’t think it is likely.
  • Peaking Leverage Curve: As the chart shows, the leverage use has a very wide range of use. This isn’t necessarily bad, but when you see the leverage curve spike up like shown in the image below it is often a result of the strategy leveraging down when investments move against them – martingale. This can of course work many times, but if done frequently enough it will eventually backfire. We can see the max leverage use was 18 times! That means it would take only a 5.5% move in the underlying investments to have a 100% drawdown.
  • Strategy Description: The strategy has zero description from the creator. I understand that you don’t want to give away your secret sauce. However, I would like to see some sort of description that tries to tell why the creator thinks their strategy is likely to succeed when I have seen so many similar ones fail.
  • C2 Star Certified: This strategy is C2 star certified, meaning it has stayed within certain historical risk and drawdown metrics. Personally, I don’t find C2 Star to be helpful in identifying what won’t have a big drawdown in the future.
  • No Trades-Own-System: The leader may be trading their own money in the same way, but C2 can’t verify that for me. That is a negative for me.

My Thoughts

I think this strategy is far too aggressive for me. It is impossible to say exactly what will happen, but these are my projections.

  • I think there is about a 70% chance this strategy suffers a very sudden and massive drawdown and is then abandoned.
  • I think there is about a 25% chance this strategy slows down to the point that people don’t follow it.
  • I think there is about a 1% chance that is stays with a similar growth patter for 3 years or more.
  • I think there is about a 2% chance that it doesn’t maintain such high growth but keeps good growth that is better than an index fund starting now and going for the next 5 years.
  • There is probably about a 2% chance of some scenario outside these.

I plan to set a reminder to check in on this strategy later and see how it does. In short, I wish the person well, but I honestly believe this strategy shows all the earmarks of something that will explode. I wish the person and their subscribers well, but I don’t see anything here to make me want to move money from my investment methods to theirs.

See my Brokerage Accounts

In addition to this blog you can follow my live brokerage accounts anytime. The three links below will take you to a third-party website called collective2 where I record and publish my personal trading decisions. If you have questions let me know!

Retirement Account #1:Patience is a Virtue

Retirement Account #2: My Roth IRA

Paper Trading Account #3: Leverage and Patience

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.

Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.